روشی جدید برای مدل‌سازی قابلیت اطمینان سیستم‌های مکانیکی با نرخ شکست وانی شکل براساس آزمون‌های سانسور شده و شتاب‌دهنده

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

مربی گروه آمار، دانشکده ریاضی و علوم کامپیوتر، دانشگاه دامغان، دامغان، ایران

چکیده

رفتار تابع نرخ شکست برخی سیستم­های مکانیکی وانی شکل است. مدل وایبل معمولی قادر نیست طول عمر چنین سیستم­هایی با تابع نرخ شکست وانی شکل را بطور کامل مدل­سازی نماید. در این مقاله از یک توزیع وایبل تعمیم یافته جدید برای مدل­سازی توابع نرخ شکست با رفتار وانی شکل استفاده شده است. این مدل بر روی سه مجموعه داده مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است. در این سه مجموعه داده، به منظور کاهش زمان اجرای آزمون طول عمر از آزمون­های شتاب­دهنده و سانسور­شده نوع یک استفاده شده است. پارامترهای مدل نیز براساس روش ماکزیمم درستنمایی برآورد شده­اند. شاخص­های آکائیک، لگاریتم تابع درستنمایی و معیاراطلاع بیزی به دست آمده، حاکی از کارایی این مدل برای داده­های حاصل از انجام آزمون های طول عمر ذکر شده است. بنابراین میانگین طول عمر پیش­بینی شده از اعتبار خوبی برخوردار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

A new method for modeling the reliability of mechanical systems with vanilla-shaped failure rates based on censored and accelerator tests

نویسنده [English]

  • rohollah ramezani
Instructor, Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Damghan University, Damghan, Iran
چکیده [English]

ehavior is a function of the failure rate of some mechanical systems. The conventional Weibull model is not able to fully model the lifespan of such systems with the ohmic refractive index function. In this paper, a new generalized Weibull distribution is used to model the failure rate functions with vanity-shaped behavior. This model is evaluated on three datasets. In these three datasets, in order to reduce the execution time of the lifetime test, accelerator and censored type one tests have been used. The model parameters are also estimated based on the maximum likelihood method. The Akaike indices, the logarithm of the probability function, and the Bayesian information criterion are obtained, indicating the efficiency of this model for the data obtained from performing the lifetime tests. Therefore, the predicted average lifespan has good validity.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Reliability of mechanical systems
  • Weibel distribution
  • Accelerator life test
  • Censored lifetime test
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