Quality improvement of conflict analysis in the worldwide gas industry using graph model scenarios and agent-based methodology
Volume 14, Issue 4, Autumn 2025, Pages 321-357
https://doi.org/10.48313/jqem.2025.518073.1517
Mohammad Reza Fathi, Tooraj Karimi, Sahar Omrani Gargari
Abstract Purpose: This study aims to explore and assess situations in international markets. In this context, the primary objective is to identify the factors influencing the gas market and analyze the internal dynamics of each factor. Subsequently, based on the recognized elements' factor-driven model, the interplay and behavior of these elements as parts of the model are investigated.
Methodology: This research employs the problem structuring approach, also known as soft operational research, specifically the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) method. Additionally, in the quantitative part of this research, factor-based modeling is utilized. In this research, an attempt is first made to obtain a clear understanding of the gas market, and then a model is built based on this understanding. By identifying the key and leverage components of the factor-based model and simulating it over the long term, we generate possible scenarios or states.
Findings: In the first step, key players in the gas market, including the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, India, Iran, Qatar, and the Renewable Energy Group, were identified, and the conflicts between them were modeled. The GMCR analysis identified 28 equilibrium points, which were subsequently clustered into five distinct scenarios. In the next step, an agent-based simulation model was developed based on these scenarios.
Originality/Value: By integrating GMCR and an Agent-Based Model (ABM), this study has successfully addressed aspects of strategic conflict, market dynamics, and participants' gradual learning, which were previously overlooked in earlier research.