پیش بینی بیزی برای نمونه سانسور شده از توزیع کوماراسوامی بر اساس مدل آزمون طول عمر سریع جزیی و بررسی کاربرد آن در مواد سرامیکی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مکانیک - دانشکده مهندسی - دانشگاه پیام نور

2 عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه آزاد لاهیجان

چکیده

مدل آزمون طول عمر سریع، یکی از مدل‌های بهینه در کسب اطلاعات مربوط به قابلیت اطمینان محصولات، بر اساس تسریع زمان شکست در مدت زمان کوتاه است. در این تحقیق، فاصله پیش‌بینی بیزی برای مقادیر سانسور شده در مدل آزمون طول عمر سریع جزیی با فشار یکسان بر اساس توزیع کوماراسوامی، مطالعه گردیده است. به دلیل عدم وجود فرم بسته در تابع پیش‌بینی بیزی، از الگوریتم زنجیره مارکوف مونت کارلو برای محاسبه تابع پیش‌بینی تقریبی و ساختن فواصل پیش‌بینی استفاده شده است. شبیه‌سازی و یک مجموعه داده واقعی برای مقایسه فواصل پیش‌بینی‌ بیزی، آورده شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که فواصل پیش‌بینی تحت تمامی حالات سانسور عملکرد خوبی دارند و مقادیر واقعی داده‌ها را در بر می‌گیرند. از نتایج به دست آمده می‌توان برای افزایش کیفیت و کاهش زمان و هزینه مربوط به آزمایش‌های کنترل کیفی محصولات استفاده کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Bayesian Prediction for Censored Data from the Kumaraswamy Distribution based on Constant-Stress Accelerated Life Test Model and Its Application in Ceramic Materials  

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeed Asadi 1
  • Hanieh Panahi 2
1 Department of Mechanical Engineering, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Lahijan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Lahijan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

 
The accelerated life test model is one of the optimal models to obtain information about the reliability of the industrial products in the shortest possible time. In this article, the problem of the Bayesian prediction intervals from the Kumaraswamy distribution based on censored data in constant-stress partially accelerated life test model is studied. Since the Bayesian predictive function can not be computed in closed-form, the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to construct the prediction intervals. Simulation and real data analyses are performed to compare different Bayesian prediction intervals. The results show that the prediction intervals perform well and contain the actual values of the data. The obtained results can be used to increase the quality and reduce the time and cost of product quality control tests.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Bayesian prediction
  • Kumaraswamy distribution
  • Unified hybrid censoring
  • Partially accelerated life test

مراجع

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نشریه علمی پژوهشی مهندسی و مدیریت کیفیت
دوره 11، شماره 1
خرداد 1400
صفحه 15-32

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