نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 عضو هیات علمی گروه ریاضی، دانشکده فنی، واحدتهران جنوب دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی
2 کارشناس ارشد آمار، گروه ریاضی و آمار واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
3 استادیار، گروه ریاضی و آمار واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Iran is a windy country due to its proximity to the sea and having various plateaus. The global statistics of the last 30 years indicate an increase in the world's energy needs. Therefore, the optimal use of renewable energy sources, including wind energy for electricity generation, especially based on environmental attitudes, is increasing in many countries of the world. But due to the instability of wind energy, its use faces a challenge, which can be effectively reduced by modeling wind speed volatilities. In this article, the weekly mean recorded data of wind speed in Ardabil meteorological station during 1380-1395 are modeled using time series GARCH models (including GARCH model and asymmetric GARCH models). Based on the Bayesian information criterion, the best model for wind speed volatilities in Ardabil meteorological station is the GARCH model. In this article, Box-Jenkins modeling method with Eviews and R software is used for data analysis.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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