طراحی یک مدل تلفیقی از آزمون‌های ALT و ADT برای محاسبه طول عمر در قابلیت اطمینان نازل یک موتور توربینی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی صنایع، مجتمع دانشگاهی صنایع و مدیریت دانشگاه مالک اشتر، اصفهان، ایران.

2 مجتمع دانشگاهی مکانیک، دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، اصفهان، ایران.

چکیده
هدف: قابلیت اطمینان یکی از ویژگی‌های کیفی مهم برای قطعات، محصولات و سیستم‌ها است که برخلاف سایر ویژگی‌ها، مستقیما قابل اندازه‌گیری نیست و معمولا تنها پس از طی زمان قابل‌توجهی در شرایط عملیاتی واقعی قابل ارزیابی است. با این‌حال، انتظار برای جمع‌آوری داده‌های میدانی ممکن است در صنایع تجاری منجر به کاهش فروش و در سیستم‌های حساس مانند تجهیزات نظامی، تهدیدی جدی برای ایمنی افراد باشد. از ‌این‌رو، پیش‌بینی قابلیت اطمینان نقش مهمی در تصمیم‌گیری‌های کلیدی نظیر زمان عرضه محصول، سیاست گارانتی و برنامه‌ریزی نگه‌داری ایفا می‌کند. هدف این پژوهش، ارایه یک مدل تلفیقی از آزمون‌های تنزل کارکرد و آزمون‌های عمر شتاب‌یافته به‌منظور پیش‌بینی طول عمر نازل موتور توربینی در شرایط عملیاتی است.
روش‌شناسی پژوهش: در مرحله نخست، آزمون ADT جهت ثبت روند تخریب مولفه کلیدی نازل در سطوح مختلف دما و زمان طراحی و اجرا شد. سپس با بهره‌گیری از مدل توان و مدل آرنیوس، پارامترهای شتاب و انرژی فعال‌سازی استخراج گردید. در مرحله بعد، آزمون ALT با استفاده از پارامترهای به‌دست ‌آمده و تحت شرایط تنش بالا اجرا و داده‌های مربوط به زمان‌های خرابی مستقیم ثبت شد. در‌نهایت، با تلفیق نتایج دو آزمون و تحلیل آماری (شامل برآورد حداکثر احتمال و تحلیل مسیر تخریب)، توزیع طول عمر سیستم مدل‌سازی شد.
یافته‌ها: پیاده‌سازی مدل بر روی نازل یک موتور توربینی نشان داد که مدل پیشنهادی توانایی پیش‌بینی دقیق طول عمر را داشته و می‌تواند منجر به کاهش زمان و هزینه‌های آزمون گردد.
اصالت/ارزش افزوده علمی: این مدل با ترکیب نظام‌مند دو نوع آزمون (ADT و ALT) و بهره‌گیری از خروجی یکی به‌عنوان ورودی دیگری، ساختار تحلیلی نوینی برای پیش‌بینی قابلیت اطمینان ارایه می‌دهد که قابلیت تعمیم به سایر محصولات حساس صنعتی و دفاعی را نیز دارا است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله English

Design of an integrated model combining ALT and ADT for lifetime estimation in the reliability analysis of a Turbine Engine Nozzle

نویسندگان English

Zahra Azhari 1
Mehdi Karbasian 1
Behrooz Shahriari 2
1 Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Industry, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
2 Faculty of Mechanics, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
چکیده English

Purpose: Reliability is one of the most critical quality characteristics of components, products, and systems. Unlike other attributes, it cannot be directly measured and is usually evaluated only after significant operational time under real conditions. However, waiting for long-term field data may reduce market competitiveness in commercial industries and pose serious safety risks in sensitive systems such as military equipment. Therefore, reliability prediction plays a vital role in key decision-making areas such as product release timing, warranty policies, and maintenance planning. This study aims to present an integrated model based on accelerated degradation testing and accelerated life testing to predict the lifetime of a turbine engine nozzle under operational conditions.
Methodology: Initially, the ADT was designed and conducted to monitor the degradation trend of the nozzle's critical feature at various temperature and time levels. Using the power-law and Arrhenius acceleration models, acceleration parameters and the activation energy were estimated. Subsequently, the ALT was performed under high-stress thermal conditions using the extracted parameters, and the corresponding failure times were recorded. Finally, by integrating the results of both tests and applying statistical methods such as maximum likelihood estimation and degradation path modeling, the system's lifetime distribution was modeled.
Findings: The implementation of the proposed model on a turbine engine nozzle demonstrated its ability to predict lifetime accurately and to reduce testing time and cost significantly.
Originality/Value: This model introduces a novel analytical framework that systematically combines two testing methods (ADT and ALT), with the output of one serving as input to the other. The proposed approach can be generalized and applied to other critical industrial and defense-related products.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Reliability
Accelerated degradation testing
Accelerated life testing
Arrhenius model
Turbine engine nozzle
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